Ukraine Updates: Biden Joins Europe In Punishing Russia With Sanctions

“Who in the Lord’s name does Putin think gives him the right to declare new so-called countries on territory that belonged to his neighbors?” Mr. Biden said on Tuesday afternoon, joining a cascade of criticism from global leaders earlier in the day. “This is a flagrant violation of international law and demands a firm response from the international community.”

Mr. Biden warned Mr. Putin that more sanctions would follow if the Russian leader did not withdraw his forces and engage in diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis.

But that prospect remained dim by the end of the day, as Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken canceled plans to meet with the Russian foreign minister on Thursday, saying that it does not “make sense” to hold talks while Russian forces are on the move.

“To put it simply, Russia just announced that it is carving out a big chunk of Ukraine,” Mr. Biden said, adding, “He’s setting up a rationale to take more territory by force.”

The global response began early on Tuesday, just hours after Mr. Putin recognized the self-declared separatist states in eastern Ukraine and Russian forces started rolling into their territory, according to NATO, European Union and White House officials. It was the first major deployment of Russian troops across the internationally recognized border since the current crisis began.

At a news conference in Moscow, Mr. Putin said that he had not decided to send in troops “right at this moment.” But officials said the invasion started overnight, just hours before Mr. Putin’s Parliament formally granted him the authority to deploy the military abroad. Ukrainians near the territory controlled by Kremlin-backed separatists have already endured days of shelling, and as Ukrainian troops hunkered down in their trenches and civilians took shelter in basements, the country’s military said that one soldier had been killed so far and six wounded.

Financial markets around the world wobbled on Tuesday in the wake of the Russian actions and the response from Western governments. In the United States, the news pushed stocks lower, leaving the S&P 500 in correction territory, more than 10 percent below its January peak. Oil prices, which had risen to nearly $100 a barrel in anticipation of a global disruption, settled at $96.84 a barrel, up 1.5 percent.

Mr. Biden and his counterparts in Germany, England and other European nations described the package of global sanctions as severe. They include financial directives by the United States to deny Russia the ability to borrow money in Western markets and to block financial transactions by two banks and the families of three wealthy Russian elites.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany put the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline on hold. The $11 billion conduit from Russia to Germany — completed but not yet operational — is crucial to Moscow’s plans to increase energy sales to Europe. European Union foreign ministers and the British government approved sanctions against legislators in Moscow who voted to authorize the use of force, as well as Russian elites, companies and organizations.

“It will hurt a lot,” said the E.U. foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell Fontelles.

The governments of Japan, Taiwan and Singapore also issued a joint statement saying they would limit technology exports to Russia in an effort to pressure Mr. Putin with damaging restrictions on his ambitions to compete in high-tech industries.

But the moves in Washington and other capitals around the world were limited in scope and fell short of the more sweeping economic warfare that some — including members of Congress and other supporters of Ukraine — have repeatedly demanded in recent weeks.

Mr. Biden and his counterparts have said they must balance the need to take swift and severe action with preserving the possibility of even greater sanctions on Russia if Mr. Putin escalates the conflict by trying to seize more territory claimed by the separatists, or even the entire country — a war that could kill tens of thousands of people.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” he said, adding that “we’ll continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates.”

European leaders also vowed to get tougher if Mr. Putin’s forces continued to advance. Prime Minister Boris Johnson described British sanctions as just “the first tranche.”

Mr. Biden’s use of the word “invasion” was significant. In the past, he had angered the Ukrainian leadership when he suggested that there might be lesser penalties for a “minor incursion.” Now that Mr. Putin has ordered forces into eastern Ukraine, Mr. Biden, in his choice of words, is making clear that there is nothing minor about the operation.

But that still leaves open the question of how to calibrate the sanctions — because so far there have been no mass casualties. Jonathan Finer, the president’s deputy national security adviser, said early Tuesday that the administration could hold back some of its promised punishments in the hopes of deterring further, far more violent aggression by Mr. Putin aimed at taking the rest of the country.

“We’ve always envisioned waves of sanctions that would unfold over time in response to steps Russia actually takes, not just statements that they make,” Mr. Finer said on CNN. “We’ve always said we’re going to watch the situation on the ground and have a swift and severe response.”

Crucially, it remains unclear how far Mr. Putin — who has argued that Ukraine itself is a phony country, wrongly carved away from Russia — is prepared to go. On Tuesday, he said ominously that he recognized the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk republics’ sovereignty over not only the land they control, but also the much larger portion of Ukraine that they lay claim to, home to 2.5 million people.

At a hastily called news conference on Tuesday, Mr. Putin demanded that Ukraine vow never to join NATO, give up the advanced weapons the West has delivered to it, recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea and negotiate directly with the Luhansk and Donetsk separatists, who are seen in Kyiv and Western capitals as illegitimate Kremlin proxies.

“The most important point is a known degree of demilitarization of Ukraine today,” Mr. Putin said. “This is the only objectively controllable factor that can be observed and reacted to.”

A deputy Russian defense minister, Nikolai Pankov, claimed that Ukraine had gathered 60,000 troops to attack the Russia-backed separatist enclaves in the country’s east — a step that Ukraine denies having any plans to take. Mr. Pankov’s remarks offered little evidence that a peaceful end to the conflict between the two countries was in sight.

“Negotiations have reached a dead end,” he said in a televised speech. “The Ukrainian leadership has taken the path of violence and bloodshed.”

Mr. Biden’s announcement of the new sanctions was equally grim. He said the United States was imposing “full blocking” on two large Russian financial institutions and “comprehensive sanctions” on Russian debt.

“That means we’ve cut off Russia’s government from Western finance,” he said. “It can no longer raise money from the West and cannot trade in its new debt on our markets or European markets, either.”

He also said that the United States would impose sanctions on Russian elites and their families, an effort to ensure that those closest to Mr. Putin do not escape the financial pain that is expected to hit hard for average Russian citizens.

Daleep Singh, a deputy national security adviser, called the sanctions announced on Tuesday “only the sharp edge of the pain we can inflict.”

Mr. Singh described the two banks as a “glorified piggy bank of the Kremlin” and a financier “of the activities of the Russian military.” The banks will be prohibited from making transactions in the United States or Europe, and their assets in the U.S. will be frozen.

Mr. Singh said the sanctions against the Russian elites and their families would punish those who “shared in the corrupt gains of the Kremlin, and they will now share in the pain.”

American officials have worried for weeks that imposing severe sanctions on Russia could also have consequences in the United States, including higher gas prices. Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said Americans should be prepared for the conflict with Russia to have that result.

Asked about Mr. Biden’s proposed summit with Mr. Putin, Ms. Psaki said the administration was still open to diplomacy. “That remains an option,” she said of a potential meeting, but only if Russia de-escalates hostilities toward Ukraine.

By day’s end in eastern Ukraine, there was no immediate sign of major military escalation, but fearful Ukrainians boarded buses out of the separatist areas as the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, urged his nation to “keep a cool head” in the crisis.

Mr. Zelensky insisted that Ukraine would not yield territory, and his defense minister, Oleksiy Reznikov, appeared to be girding his country’s troops for battle.

“Ahead will be a difficult trial,” Mr. Reznikov said in a somber message released by the military. “There will be losses. You will have to go through pain and overcome fear and despondency.”

A Times analysis of prior satellite imagery from that location found that it had been active only since mid-Feburary; a video posted on Feb. 14 showed military fuel tanks heading toward the airfield. Tuesday’s imagery shows that more than 100 vehicles and dozens of tents have arrived.

Some of the locations in Belarus and western Russia are possibly intended as support sites for combat units in case of a Russian attack on Ukraine.

In Belgorod, a new field hospital has been set up over the last week at a military garrison 25 miles from the border.

They went beyond his reaction on Monday, when Mr. Guterres described Russia’s recognition of two breakaway Russian-backed enclaves and its decision to send troops into them as inconsistent with the U.N. Charter and a violation of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.

“Our world is facing the biggest global peace and security crisis in recent years — certainly in my tenure as secretary general,” Mr. Guterres said. “We face a moment that I sincerely hoped would not come.”

Referring to Russia’s action, he said that “such a unilateral measure conflicts directly with the principles of the Charter of the United Nations” and what is known as the Friendly Nations declaration by the General Assembly, “which the International Court of Justice has repeatedly cited as representing international law.”

Russia’s action, he said, also represented a “death blow” to the Minsk agreements that were designed to end the armed conflict between Ukraine and the two Russian-backed breakaway regions that has prevailed since 2014.

Mr. Guterres also said he was “concerned about the perversion of the concept of peacekeeping” — a clear reference to the Kremlin’s portrayal of the troops ordered into the two regions. He sought to distinguish them from the U.N. peacekeepers on assignment in a dozen missions around the world, invited with the permission of the host country.

“When troops of one country enter the territory of another country without its consent, they are not impartial peacekeepers,” he told reporters. “They are not peacekeepers at all.”

Answering a few questions, Mr. Guterres also disputed assertions by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia that civilians in the two breakaway enclaves were the victims of “genocide” by Ukrainian forces.

“Genocide is a crime that is clearly defined and whose application must be done in line with international law,” he said. “I do not think it is the case.”

Mr. Guterres, who has said more than once that he believed the Ukraine crisis would not devolve into war, appeared to be far more worried about that prospect on Tuesday.

“Any additional Russian military deployments into Ukraine would only further inflame tensions,” he said. “It is high time to return to the path of dialogue and negotiations. We must rally and meet this challenge together for peace, and to save the people of Ukraine and beyond from the scourge of war.”

Mr. Guterres said that the “United Nations and the entire international system are being tested” and that “we must pass this test.”

Last night, Putin authorized Russian forces to deploy into these regions. Today he asserted that these regions actually extend deeper than the two areas he recognized, claiming large areas currently under the jurisdiction of the Ukraine government. He’s setting up a rationale to take more territory by force in my view. And if we listen to his speech last night, and many of you did, I know, he’s setting up a rationale to go much further. This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, as he indicated and asked permission to be able to do from his Duma.

So, let’s begin to — so, I’m going to begin to impose sanctions in response far beyond the steps we and our allies and partners implemented in 2014. And if Russia goes further with this invasion we stand prepared to go further as with sanctions. Who in the Lord’s name does Putin think gives him the right to declare new so-called countries on territory that belonged to his neighbors?

This is a flagrant violation of international law and demands a firm response from the international community. Over the last few months, we’ve coordinated closely with our NATO allies and partners in Europe and around the world to prepare that response. We’ve said all along, and I’ve told Putin to his face more than a month ago, that we would act together and the moment Russia moved against Ukraine. Russia has now undeniably moved against Ukraine by declaring these independent states.

So today, I’m announcing the first tranche of sanctions to impose costs on Russia in response to their actions yesterday. These have been closely coordinated with our allies and partners. We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates. We’re implementing full blocking sanctions on two large Russian financial institutions, VEB and their military bank.

We’re implementing sanctions on Russian’s sovereign debt. That means we’ve cut off Russia’s government from western financing. It can no longer raise money from the West and cannot trade in its new debt on our markets or European markets either.

Starting tomorrow, and continuing in the days ahead, we’ll also impose sanctions on Russia’s elites and their family members. They share in the corrupt gains of the Kremlin policies and should share in the pain as well.

Because of Russia’s actions, we’ve worked with Germany to ensure that Nord Stream 2 will not, as I promised, will not move forward. As Russia contemplates its next move, we have our next move prepared as well. Russia will pay a steeper price if it continues its aggression, including additional sanctions. The United States will continue to provide defensive assistance to Ukraine in the meantime and will continue to reinforce and reassure our NATO allies.

Today, in response to Russia’s admission that it will not withdraw its forces from Belarus, I have authorized the additional movements of U.S. Forces and equipment already stationed in Europe, to strengthen our Baltic allies Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

Let me be clear: These are totally defensive moves on our part. We have no intention of fighting Russia. We want to send an unmistakable message, though, that the United States, together with our allies, will defend every inch of NATO territory and abide by the commitments we made to NATO.

We still believe that Russia is poised to go much further in launching a massive military attack against Ukraine. I hope I’m wrong about that and I hope we’re wrong about that, but Russia has only escalated its threat against the rest of Ukrainian territory, including the major cities and the capital city of Kyiv. There are still well over 150,000 Russian troops surrounding Ukraine.

As I said, Russian forces remain positioned in Belarus to attack Ukraine from the north, including war planes and offensive missile systems. Russia’s moved troops closer to Ukraine’s border with Russia. Russia’s naval vessels are maneuvering in the Black Sea to Ukraine’s south including amphibious assault ships, missile cruisers and submarines. Russia’s moved supplies of blood and medical equipment into position on the border. You don’t need blood unless you plan on starting a war.

Over the last few days, we’ve seen much of the playbook that Secretary Blinken laid out last week in the United Nations Security Council come to pass. A major increase in military provocations, and false flag events along the line of contact in the Donbas, dramatically staged, conveniently on camera, meeting of Putin’s security council to grandstand for the Russian public. And now, political provocation of recognizing sovereign Ukrainian territory, so-called independent republics, in clear violation, again, of international law.

President Putin has sought authorization from the Russian Parliament to use military force outside of Russian territory. And this set the stage for further pretext of further provocations by Russia to try to justify further military action.

None of us, none of us should be fooled. None of us will be fooled. There is no justification. Further Russian assault of the Ukraine remains a severe threat in the days ahead. If Russia proceeds, it is Russia and Russia alone that bears the responsibility. As we respond, my administration is using every tool at our disposal to protect American businesses and consumers from rising prices at the pump.

As I said last week, defending freedom will have costs for us as well and here at home. We need to be honest about that. But as we will do — but as we do this, I’m going to take robust action to make sure the pain of our sanctions is targeted at the Russian economy not ours.

We’re monitoring energy supplies for any disruption. We’re executing a plan in coordination with major oil-producing consumers and producers toward a collective investment to secure stability and global energy supplies. This will be — this will blunt gas prices. I want to limit the pain to the American people are feeling at the gas pump. This is critical to me.

In the last few days I’ve been in constant contact with European leaders, including with Ukrainian President Zelensky. Vice President Harris met in person with the leaders in Germany over the weekend at the Munich conference, including President Zelensky. At every step, we have shown the United States and our allies and partners are working in unison, which he hasn’t been counting on, Mr. Putin.

We’re united in our support of Ukraine. We are united in our opposition to Russian aggression. And we’re united in our resolve to defend our NATO alliance. And we’re united in our understanding of the urgency and seriousness of the threat Russia is making to global peace and stability.

Yesterday, the world heard clearly the full extent of Vladimir Putin’s twisted rewrite of history. Going back more than a century, as he waxed eloquently noting that, well, I’m not going to go into it — nothing in Putin’s lengthy remarks indicate any interest in pursuing real dialogue on European security in the year 2022.

He directly attacked Ukraine’s right to exist. He indirectly threatened territory formerly held by Russia, including nations that today are thriving democracies and members of NATO. He explicitly threatened war unless his extreme demands were met. And there’s no question that Russia is the aggressor.

So we’re clear eyed about the challenges we’re facing. Nonetheless, there is still time to avert the worse-case scenario that will bring untold suffering to millions of people if they move as suggested. The United States and our allies and partners remain open to diplomacy, if it is serious.

When all is said and done, we’re going to judge Russia by its actions, not its words. And whatever Russia does next, we’re ready to respond with unity, clarity, and conviction. I’ll probably have more to say about this as it moves on. I’m hoping diplomacy is still available.

Thank you all very much.

The latest orders come as the Biden administration and its European allies called the Kremlin’s recognition of two separatist regions of Ukraine a defiance of international law. Mr. Biden on Tuesday joined European leaders in imposing economic sanctions against Russia for what he termed as a violation of Ukraine’s national sovereignty.

The Pentagon said the additional forces are being repositioned to “reassure our NATO allies, deter any potential aggression against NATO member states, and train with host-nation forces.” The Biden administration has said that it does not intend to send troops into Ukraine, which is not a member of the alliance.

The deployments include the movement of up to eight F-35 fighters from Germany to several operating locations along NATO’s so-called “eastern flank” in Eastern Europe, a battalion of 20 attack helicopters from Germany to the Baltics, and an attack aviation task force of 12 helicopters from Greece to Poland.

Mr. Biden has already deployed 3,000 additional American troops to Poland and Romania.

“The further renewed Russian invasion of Ukraine that has now begun means clearly that the idea of having a meeting this week with Foreign Minister Lavrov, to pursue diplomacy — diplomacy now rejected by Russia — does not make sense,” Mr. Blinken said.

Mr. Kuleba said that his government would also seek to pursue diplomacy if possible to forestall a full Russian invasion. If that fails, he added, his people would “fight for every inch of our land, and every city, and every village. To fight until we win.”

Mr. Kuleba said his government appreciated the new sanctions against Russia imposed by the Biden administration. But he called for even stronger action.

“The world must respond with all its economic might to punish Russia for the crimes it has already committed, and ahead of the crimes it plans to commit,” he said. “Hit Russia’s economy now, and hit it hard.”

As Russian troops have massed on Ukraine’s southern, eastern and northern borders, Mr. Zelensky has urged that citizens not panic. In calling up the reserves, he added that general conscription was not yet necessary.

He also announced a package of “economic patriotism” in response to the economic costs of increasing tensions with Russia. The package includes tax incentives and a stimulus program for manufacturers and banks, part of an effort to rally businesses to remain in Ukraine.

According to recent assessments, Ukraine’s economy is losing up to $3 billion per month as a result of the crisis, a number that is likely to rise as international airlines cancel flights amid concerns over a full-scale Russian invasion.

Mr. Zelensky also urged Ukrainians to fight for their freedom.

“Ukrainians are a peaceful nation,” he said. “We want quiet. But if we are today silent, then tomorrow we will disappear. Before us lies hard work, every day, but we are prepared for it with confidence in ourselves, in our country, in victory.”

Maria Varenikova contributed reporting.

In July 2016, Mr. Trump directly appealed to the Russians to hack the emails of his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, and make them public, the same day that the Russians made their first effort to break into the servers used by Mrs. Clinton’s personal office.

Once elected, Mr. Trump broke with decades of American precedent and repeatedly showed unusual deference toward Russia and expressed admiration for Mr. Putin, among other strongman leaders.

Weeks after taking office, Mr. Trump brushed aside Mr. Putin’s human rights transgressions during an interview with Bill O’Reilly, then of Fox News.

“You got a lot of killers,” he said. “What, you think our country’s so innocent?”

In 2018, Mr. Trump stood alongside Mr. Putin at the end of a summit meeting in Helsinki, Finland, and publicly challenged the conclusion of his own intelligence agencies that Moscow had interfered in the 2016 election, an enormous demonstration of trust in a leader accused of attacking American democracy.

On Tuesday, Mr. Trump also ridiculed President Biden and accused him of failing to address Mr. Putin’s recognition late Monday of two Russia-backed separatist territories in Ukraine as independent republics, saying, “There was no response,” and calling this “very sad.”

Mr. Trump’s remarks were broadcast on a conservative talk radio show hosted by Clay Travis and Buck Sexton around the same time that Mr. Biden addressed the nation and announced a first set of sanctions against Russia.

Mr. Trump made no mention on the radio show of his impeachment in 2019 for a pressure campaign on Ukraine to incriminate Mr. Biden and aid his own re-election campaign, a charge he was acquitted of in the Republican-controlled Senate.

“Putin is now saying, ‘It’s independent,’ a large section of Ukraine. I said, ‘How smart is that?’ And he’s going to go in and be a peacekeeper,” Mr. Trump said. “That’s the strongest peace force I’ve ever seen. There were more army tanks than I’ve ever seen. They’re going to keep peace, all right. No, but think of it. Here’s a guy who’s very savvy.”

Since Mr. Trump left office, Republicans have split on how to respond to Russian aggression. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and others have called for harsh sanctions against Russia, while Trump supporters such as the Fox News host Tucker Carlson and J.D. Vance, a Senate candidate in Ohio, have argued that the United States should not punish Russia.

In a statement released Tuesday morning, Mr. Trump said the Russian aggression toward Ukraine would not have happened if he were still president.

During the radio interview, Mr. Trump said he and Mr. Putin had discussed a potential invasion of Ukraine when Mr. Trump was in the White House. “I knew that he always wanted Ukraine. I used to talk to him about it,” Mr. Trump said. “I said, ‘You can’t do it. You’re not going to do it.’ But I could see that he wanted it. I used to ask him. We used to talk about it at length.”

In recent weeks, Europe has been struggling to present a united front against Russia. Europe has important trade ties with Russia and is dependent on Russian gas supplies, both of which could come under pressure if Russia invades Ukraine. Mr. Putin has sought to sow divisions in the E.U., and in the past wielded Russian energy as a geopolitical weapon.

At stake for Europe is whether it can allow Mr. Putin to upend the security structure that has helped buttress peace on the continent over several decades.

Appearing resolute, Mr. Borrell said that the sanctions would target the 351 members of the Russian Parliament, as well as 27 individuals and entities that are “playing a role in undermining or threatening Ukrainian territorial integrity.”

E.U. sanctions would focus on a number of areas related to Russia’s recognition of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, including individual decision makers and other actors threatening Ukraine; defense-sector individuals and companies or government agencies playing a role in the crisis; and banks that are financing operations in the territories.

“We will target the ability of the Russian state and government to access our capital and financial market and services,” Mr. Borrell said.

Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, the E.U.’s executive branch, called the package “solid.”

Ms. von der Leyen said that the first package of sanctions would limit “the Russian government’s ability to raise capital on the E.U.’s financial markets,” although neither she nor Mr. Borrell immediately explained how that would happen.

Both top E.U. officials hailed the German decision to freeze its Nord Stream 2 pipeline project as a key part of Europe’s response to Russia. “I think the German government is absolutely right,” Ms. von der Leyen, herself a German politician, said.

“Nord Stream 2 has to be assessed in light of the security of energy supply for the whole European Union, because this crisis shows that Europe is still too dependent on Russian gas,” she added.

Mr. Borrell and Ms. von der Leyen said that sanctions would intensify should Russia escalate further.

“I want a sanctions regime from hell next week,” Mr. Graham said. He also had a warning for the broader Russian public: “You can expect bad things to come your way.”

Senator Richard Blumenthal, Democrat of Connecticut, said talks began Monday night and were gathering momentum on Tuesday, after senators argued fruitlessly for the past month over the size, shape and timing of a measure to impose sanctions legislatively.

The spending bill would intensify lethal aid to Ukraine and help the Defense Department fund troop deployments to NATO countries to the north and west of Ukraine. The sanctions bill will focus on the superrich oligarchs who have bolstered Mr. Putin.

“There is consensus among Democrats and Republicans that one of the soft underbellies of Putin’s world is the lavish lifestyles of the oligarchs that he supports to keep him in power,” Mr. Graham said.

Mr. Blumenthal said Germany’s action Monday to halt work on a major natural gas pipeline from Russia to Western Europe had removed the biggest sticking point to a sanctions bill. Some Republicans had been pressing hard for sanctions to cripple the NordStream 2 pipeline, but the Biden administration strongly opposed such an action until a Russian attack, fearing that it would splinter the trans-Atlantic alliance and undermine NATO unity.

“Should the Russian incursion into eastern Ukraine turn into a full-fledged invasion, it is likely that the global and U.S. economies will absorb yet another supply shock,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the audit and tax firm RSM US.

Mr. Brusuelas projected that an “energy shock” could shave 1 percent off the United States’ gross domestic product in the next year and push the inflation rate up to 10 percent. That could raise the need for policy support to help lower-income workers weather rising food, fuel and goods prices.

Oil prices approached $100 a barrel on Tuesday, the highest in more than seven years, and European gas futures spiked 13 percent after Russia ordered troops into separatist territories in Ukraine. Analysts said that an escalating conflict could also lead to widening credit spreads and weigh on global stock prices.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany said Tuesday that his country would halt certification of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline that would link it with Russia.

Fallout from additional sanctions would most likely land more directly on European countries because of their heavy reliance on Russian natural gas.

“For the euro area economy, the main threat from tensions between Ukraine and Russia is a stagflationary shock in which financial conditions tighten and energy prices soar,” Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono, economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note to clients.

But the economic impact of the sanctions could be more muted than the saber rattling would suggest.

Economists at Capital Economics noted that Russia’s external debt and ties to other advanced economies have waned since the 2014 Crimea crisis, insulating its economy from efforts to cut it off from the global financial system. They predicted that the most likely sanctions measures could shave around 1 percent from Russia’s gross domestic product.

The Ukrainian economy will most likely face the most acute pain because of its fragile balance sheet and need for foreign assistance.

“At the risk of stating the obvious, the biggest economic impact will be on Ukraine,” Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, said. “Depending on the evolution of the conflict, this could be challenging to coordinate.”

Mr. Putin added that he had not decided to send troops into Ukraine “right at this moment.” But asked whether one could resolve issues by force and “remain on the side of the good,” Mr. Putin made it clear he saw military action as a morally defensible course.

“Why do you think that the good must always be powerless?” Mr. Putin said. “I don’t believe so. I think that the good implies the ability to protect oneself. We will proceed based on this.”

Mr. Putin further laid the foundation for military conflict by declaring that Russia would recognize the sovereignty of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics over the full territory that they claim. That includes a large area of eastern Ukraine that is currently controlled by the Ukrainian government, and includes several cities like Mariupol and Kramatorsk.

“We expect — and I want to emphasize this — that all contentious issues will be resolved in negotiations between today’s Kyiv authorities and the leadership of these republics,” Mr. Putin said. “Unfortunately, at this point in time, we understand that this is impossible because the hostilities there are still ongoing and, moreover, are tending to escalate.”

Mr. Putin signed decrees on Monday recognizing the separatist republics. But until Mr. Putin’s remarks Tuesday evening, it was not clear over what territory he would recognize their sovereignty.

Kyiv has refused to recognize or negotiate directly with the separatist authorities, characterizing them as Kremlin puppets.

In his news conference, Mr. Putin laid out a series of additional demands to Kyiv that, he said, the government must fulfill to resolve the situation “in a long-term, historical perspective.” He said Ukraine must recognize the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, as Russian territory; declare that it will never join the NATO alliance and maintain “neutrality”; and give up all the weaponry that the United States and other Western countries have delivered to it in recent years.

“The most important point is a known degree of demilitarization of Ukraine today,” Mr. Putin said. “This is the only objectively controllable factor that can be observed and reacted to.”

Just before state television aired Mr. Putin’s news conference, it showed Russia’s upper house of Parliament approving a request from Mr. Putin to use military force abroad that had been made public only minutes earlier. A deputy defense minister, Nikolai Pankov, told the assembly that Ukraine had gathered 60,000 troops to attack the Russia-backed separatist enclaves in the country’s east — a step that Ukraine denies having any plans to take.

“Negotiations have reached a dead end,” Mr. Pankov said in a televised speech. “The Ukrainian leadership has taken the path of violence and bloodshed.”

Just after showing the vote, state television cut to the Kremlin, where Mr. Putin was shown holding an unscheduled news conference. He repeated his past, unfounded claims that Ukraine was carrying out a “genocide” of Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine. Asked about the potential use of force, Mr. Putin responded, “I didn’t say that the troops will go there right at this moment.”

Two European officials have said that Russia has already sent troops into the area, but Russia has denied having done so.

Mr. Putin signed a decree on Monday ordering Russia’s military to perform “peacekeeping functions” in the separatist territories, the same day that he recognized them as independent nations. But as of Monday evening in Moscow, the Russian Defense Ministry had not said it was deploying troops to the territories.

Valentina Matviyenko, the chairwoman of the upper house house of Parliament, said the use of military force was being approved to “stop this bloody civil war,” according to the Interfax news agency.

Second, Mr. Biden gave the green light for an unprecedented public information campaign against Mr. Putin. With the support of his top intelligence officials — and with a promise to protect the intelligence agencies’ “sources and methods” — the president allowed a wave of public releases aimed at preventing Mr. Putin from employing his usual denials to divide his adversaries.

Third, when it became clear this year that Mr. Putin was continuing to build up forces at Ukraine’s border, the president approved sending Ukraine more weapons, including Javelin anti-tank missiles, and deploying more troops to other countries in Eastern Europe as a show of solidarity with Ukraine and to reassure nervous allies on NATO’s eastern flank.